Bitcoin (BTC) could dive another 50% from current levels if the upcoming winter proves a major test for Europe.
That was the conclusion of a veteran crypto market analyst this week, with BTC/USD failing to reclaim $20,000 support.
In an interview with Cointelegraph, Filbfilb, creator of trading suite DecenTrader, forecast a potential BTC price bottom coming in at as low as $10,000 in 2022.
As the European energy crisis intensifies, risk assets face a major test, he believes, and the extent to which crypto suffers depends considerably on how diplomacy can win out to avert a major emergency into 2023.
The figures are not just pie in the sky; at the height of the last halving cycle’s bear market in 2018, Filbfilb perfectly timed the market bottom as BTC/USD put in a floor of $3,100.
Cointelegraph reached out for more details on how the coming cold season might impact an already fragile Bitcoin trading environment.
Cointelegraph (CT): You pretty much nailed the $3,100 bottom last cycle. Is another leg down likely and what price do you think is justifiable as a bottom this time around?
Filbfilb (FF): As it stands, the price of Bitcoin is heavily correlated to the “legacy” markets, in particular the NASDAQ, which we know is under huge pressure due to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. So this time “it’s a bit different” due to the high correlation and external economic forces.
Last time, it was pretty easy due to the volume attributed to the $3,100 bottom and an 85% correction. This time, the volume base is around $11,000; $20,000–$10,000 doesn’t have much time-based history.
A lot rests on the winter and the dynamic with how Europe deals with the winter; I expect a bad winter dynamic to result in testing the previous volume range highs of $10,000–$11,000. Dialogue between NATO and Russia seems imperative with what happens next; the sooner that happens, the higher the low for Bitcoin.
CT: How is the current cycle different from the previous bear market? Is macro playing a much bigger role this cycle?
FF: As mentioned above, the correlation with “legacy” is paramount; Bitcoin has not existed in a…