Bitcoin bulls to defend $40K leading into Friday’s $760M options expiry

Over the past two months, Bitcoin (BTC) has respected a slightly ascending trend, bouncing multiple times from its support.

Even though that might sound positive, Bitcoin’s performance year-to-date remains a lackluster negative 14%. On the other hand, the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) gained 2% in the same period.

Bitcoin/USD 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

The broader commodity index benefited from price increases in crude oil, natural gas, gold, corn, and lean hogs. Worsening macroeconomic conditions pressured the supply curve, which, in turn, shifted the equilibrium price toward a higher level.

Moreover, the United States approved a $1.5 trillion spending bill on March 15 that funds the government through September. President Joe Biden’s signing of the legislation averts a government shutdown but further pressures the U.S. national debt, now over $30.3 trillion.

Still, cryptocurrency traders are increasingly concerned about the U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes expected throughout 2022 to contain inflationary pressure.

Investors took profits on riskier assets, causing the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to reach its highest level in 21 months at 99.2 on March 11. The index measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of top foreign currencies.

Bearish bets are mostly below $40,000

Bitcoin’s recovery above $40,000 on March 26 took bears by surprise as only 7% of the bearish option bets for March 18 have been placed above such a price level.

Bulls might have been fooled by the recent $45,000 resistance test on March 1 as their bets for Friday’s $760 million options expiry go all the way to $65,000.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for March 18. Source: CoinGlass

A broader view using the 1.26 call-to-put ratio shows more sizable bets as the call (buy) open interest stands at $425 million against the $335 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin is now back above $40,000, most bearish bets will likely become worthless.

For instance, if Bitcoin’s price remains above $40,000 at 8:00am UTC on March 18, only $24 million worth of those put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens…



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