Bitcoin on-chain and options data hint at a decisive move in BTC price

Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to historically low levels thanks to macroeconomic uncertainty and low market liquidity. However, on-chain and options market data allude to incoming volatility in June.

The Bitcoin Volatility Index, which measures the daily fluctuations in Bitcoin’s (BTC) price, shows that the 30-day volatility in Bitcoin’s price was 1.52%, which is less than half of the yearly averages across Bitcoin’s history, with values usually above 4%.

According to Glassnode, the expectation of volatility is a “logical conclusion” based on the fact that low volatility levels were only seen for 19.3% of Bitcoin’s price history.

The latest weekly update from the on-chain analytics firm shows that Glassnode’s monthly realized volatility metric for Bitcoin slipped below the lower bounds of the historical Bollinger Band, suggesting an incoming uptick in volatility.

Bolinger Bands for Bitcoin monthly realized volatility metric. Source: Glassnode

Long-term Bitcoin holders metric points to a price breakout

The on-chain transfer volumes of Bitcoin across cryptocurrency exchanges dropped to historically low levels. The price is also trading near short-term holder bias, indicating a “balanced position of profit and loss for new investors” that bought coins during and after the 2021-2022 bull cycle, according to the report. Currently, 50% of new investors are in profit, with the rest in loss.

However, while the short-term holders reached equilibrium levels, long-term holders were seen making a move in the recent correction, which underpins volatility, according to the analysts.

Glassnode categorizes coins older than 155 days in a single wallet under long-term holder supply.

The gray bars in the image below show the long-term holder (LTH) binary spending indicator, which tracks whether LTH spending averaged over the last seven days is adequate to decrease their total holdings.

It shows previous instances when LTH spending increased, which was usually followed by a volatility uptick.

Long-term holder spending binary indicator. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin’s recent correction saw a minor downtick in the…



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