Data shows pro traders are currently more bullish on Ethereum than Bitcoin

Most traders have noticed that Ether (ETH) price has seriously outperformed Bitcoin (BTC) for months now and the ETH/BTC ratio has rallied more than 230% in 2021 and recently hit a new high at 0.089 BTC on Dec. 9. 

ETH/BTC pair at Coinbase. Source: TradingView

To put things in perspective, Ether’s $490 billion market capitalization currently represents 54% of Bitcoin’s $903 billion. This ratio finished 2020 at a mere 15%, so it is safe to conclude that some ‘flippening’ has occurred. It might still be far from what Ethereum-maximalists imagined, but it is still quite a respectable run.

Instead of analyzing the rationale for the move or, even worse, predicting the outcome based on some loose expectations, analysts should explore the market structure of each coin individually.

For example, is the futures’ market premium facing a similar trend on both coins and how does the pro traders’ long-to-short ratio compare? These are the most relevant metrics to determine whether a movement has the strength to continue.

The futures premium favors Ether

Quarterly futures are the whales and arbitrage desks’ preferred instruments but because of their settlement date and the price difference from spot markets, they might seem complicated for retail traders. However, these quarterly contracts’ most notable advantage is the lack of a fluctuating funding rate.

These fixed-month instruments usually trade slightly above spot market prices, indicating that sellers are requesting more money to withhold settlement longer. Consequently, futures should trade at a 5% to 15% annualized premium in healthy markets. This situation is known as “contango” and is not exclusive to crypto markets.

Bitcoin and Ether futures basis. Source: Laevitas.ch

After comparing both charts, we can see that Bitcoin futures trade at an average 2.6% annualized premium for March 2022 and 4.4% for June 2022. This compares to Ether’s 2.9% and 5%, respectively. As a result, it becomes clear that whales and arbitrage desks are demanding a larger premium on Ether and this is a bullish indicator.

Bitcoin’s long-to-short ratio declined

To effectively measure how professional…

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