Has Matterport Stock Hit Bottom? Looking for the Silver Lining

Supply chain disruptions are so acute, the shortages are even spilling over to the metaverse. On the back of its Q4 report, Matterport (MTTR) indicated that camera supply-constraints along with slowing paid subscriber growth trends are responsible for a reduced growth outlook in 2022.

The spatial data company expects Q1 revenue will come in between $25.5 and $27.5 million, some distance below Wall Street’s forecast of $31.86 million.

Recurring subscription revenue is anticipated in the $17.1 and $17.4 million range, amounting to 24% to 26% year-over-year growth. Paid subscriber growth already declined to 25% in Q4, compared to 35% in the previous quarter and 82% in 1H21.

Looking at the quarterly display, revenue increased by 14.8% year-over-year to reach $27.08 million, in turn, beating the analysts’ call by $1.94 million. Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.10 matched the consensus estimate.

Positives include the growth exhibited by the freemium subscriber base, which accelerated in the quarter. The company saw 118,000 net adds, as the freemium base reached more than 500,000 users, representing growth of 139% compared to the same period last year and above the 136% uptick of the prior quarter. Higher average spend per customer also helped to partially offset the modest paid subscriber adds.

While Piper Sandler analyst Brent Bracelin admits near-term operating trends “remain volatile and difficult to predict,” he notes the quarter’s positives.

“We are encouraged by record freemium user net adds of 118K during Q4 and the longer-term potential for digital twin use-cases across residential and commercial segments,” said the 5-star analyst who remains “bullish on the long-term opportunity.”

As such, Bracelin reiterated an Overweight (i.e., Buy) rating for MTTR shares. However, given “materially lower” revenue estimates, the analyst cut his price target from $26 to $10. That said, following the share price’s recent obliteration (down 68% year-to-date), the figure still represents ~53% upside from current levels. (To watch Bracelin’s track record, click…


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