This post was originally published on TKer.co
It’s that time of year when Wall Street’s top strategists tell clients where they see the stock market heading in the year ahead.
Typically, the average forecast for the group predicts the S&P 500 climbing by about 10%, which is in line with historical averages.
This time around, the pros are unusually cautious with most expecting the S&P to end 2023 lower than where it is today.
There’s hundreds of pages of research and analysis that come with these strategists’ forecast. The general themes: Most Wall Street firms expect the U.S. economy to go into recession some time in 2023. Many believe forecasts for 2023 earnings have more room to get cut, and some believe those downward revisions mean lots of volatility for stocks in the early part of 2023. At the same time, many also expect an unambiguous drop in inflation, which would give the Federal Reserve the clearance to ease up on its hawkish monetary policy stance. At least some strategists think if economic conditions deteriorate significantly, the Fed may even return to cutting interest rates.
Wall Street is unusually skeptical about 2023. (Image: Getty)
Putting it all together, strategists expect a volatile first half to be followed by an easier second half, which could see stocks climb modestly higher.
Below is a roundup of 16 of these 2023 forecasts for the S&P 500, including highlights from the strategists’ commentary. The targets range from 3,675 to 4,500. The S&P closed on Friday at 4,071, which implies returns between -9.7% and +10.5%.
Barclays: 3,675, $210 EPS (as of Nov. 21, 2022) “We acknowledge some upside risks to our scenario analysis given post-peak inflation, strong consumer balance sheets and a resilient labor market. However, current multiples are baking in a sharp moderation in inflation and ultimately a soft landing, which we continue to believe is a low probability event.“
Societe Generale: 3,800 (as of Nov. 30) “Bearish but not as bearish as 2022 as the returns profile should be much better in 2023 as Fed hiking nears an end for this…
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